Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Southport vs Bedford

England England

National League North Haig Avenue, Southport
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Burgess L.
27' Event
Burgess L.
43' Event
Cole R.

AI Match Summary

Southport in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Southport.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Southport
20%
Draws
57%
Bedford
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bedford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Bedford have won more games recently than Southport.
  • Model gives Bedford a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Southport here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Southport Clean Sheet 12%
Bedford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Southport Bedford
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.37 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 National League North
Southport vs Bedford
4:1
Jan 17, 2026 National League North
Bedford vs Southport
2:3
Aug 16, 2025 National League North
Southport vs Bedford
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Southport Compare

Top Goalscorer Burgess L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Slew J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Bedford Compare

Top Goalscorer Cole R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Southport 14 / 100
Bedford 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Southport Bedford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bedford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.

Southport found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Bedford's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Southport has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Southport VS Bedford
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Southport

(Home)
26 Sept
Southport
2 : 2
Spennymoor
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0
Southport
12 Sept
Worksop
2 : 0
Southport
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1
Morecambe
05 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 0
Southport
Page 1 of 6

Bedford

(Away)
26 Sept
Bedford
1 : 1
Hereford
19 Sept
Bedford
2 : 1
King’s Lynn
12 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 1
Bedford
08 Sept
Worksop
1 : 2
Bedford
05 Sept
Bedford
1 : 0
Radcliffe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hereford 10 7 2 1 22:5 23
2 Macclesfield 10 6 3 1 13:6 21
3 Oxford City 10 6 2 2 18:7 20
4 South Shields 9 6 2 1 13:10 20
5 Hebburn Town 10 5 3 2 16:16 18
6 Spalding United 10 5 2 3 14:8 17
7 Chester 10 5 2 3 13:9 17
8 King’s Lynn 10 5 1 4 20:15 16
9 Buxton 10 5 1 4 18:18 16
10 Bedford 10 5 1 4 14:14 16
11 Morecambe 10 4 2 4 14:9 14
12 Chorley 10 4 2 4 16:17 14
13 Merthyr Town 10 3 4 3 12:11 13
14 Scarborough Athletic 10 3 3 4 15:12 12
15 Hednesford 10 3 3 4 17:17 12
16 Marine 10 4 0 6 12:12 12
17 Harborough 10 3 3 4 10:12 12
18 Worksop 10 4 0 6 10:16 12
19 Southport 10 2 3 5 13:20 9
20 Telford 10 2 3 5 8:15 9
21 Brackley 9 2 3 4 8:17 9
22 Darlington FC 10 2 1 7 12:21 7
23 Spennymoor 10 1 4 5 11:21 7
24 Radcliffe 10 2 0 8 9:20 6
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)