Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SP Domagnano vs Virtus

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Scappini S.
Penalty Missed
31' Event
Bonetti M.
(Penalty)
34' Event
Ferraro N.
Assist: Bonetti M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with SP Domagnano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
SP Domagnano
15%
Draws
50%
Virtus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Virtus carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Virtus are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Virtus arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor SP Domagnano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
SP Domagnano Clean Sheet 16%
Virtus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SP Domagnano Virtus
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 4 6
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.76 2
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Domagnano vs Virtus
2:1
May 9, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs SP Domagnano
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs SP Domagnano
3:2
Nov 29, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Domagnano vs Virtus
1:0
Jan 21, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs SP Domagnano
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SP Domagnano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferraro N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Scappini S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SP Domagnano 28 / 100
Virtus 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SP Domagnano Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Virtus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SP Domagnano found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: SP Domagnano remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Virtus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

SP Domagnano VS Virtus
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SP Domagnano

(Home)
11 Sept
Tre Fiori
3 : 0
SP Domagnano
08 Sept
SP Domagnano
3 : 1
SC Faetano
04 Sept
SP Domagnano
4 : 0
San Giovanni
28 Aug
Cailungo
1 : 2
SP Domagnano
16 May
Tre Penne
3 : 1
SP Domagnano
Page 1 of 6

Virtus

(Away)
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 3
Virtus
04 Sept
Fiorentino
0 : 1
Virtus
30 Aug
Virtus
0 : 0
La Fiorita
16 Jul
Virtus
1 : 0
Dila Gori
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Virtus -
TBD -
Juvenes/Dogana 1
AC Libertas 1
Folgore -
TBD -
TBD -
SP Domagnano -
Tre Penne -
TBD -
SP Cosmos 3
SS Pennarossa 0
La Fiorita -
TBD -
TBD -
Fiorentino -
Quarter-finals
Virtus 2
Juvenes/Dogana 0
Folgore 2
SP Domagnano 3
Tre Penne 0
SP Cosmos 0
La Fiorita 3
Fiorentino 3
Semi-finals
Virtus 3
SP Domagnano 3
Tre Penne 1
La Fiorita 2
Final
Virtus 2
La Fiorita 1
SP Domagnano 1
Tre Penne 3