Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SP Villafranca vs Jerez CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Chavez C.
45' Event
Quintero J.
53' Event
Minon J.

AI Match Summary

SP Villafranca play Jerez CF in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, SP Villafranca averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Jerez CF averaged 1.75 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, SP Villafranca won 3, Jerez CF won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for SP Villafranca and 1.25 for Jerez CF. This points to a SP Villafranca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
SP Villafranca
6%
Draws
4%
Jerez CF
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: SP Villafranca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • SP Villafranca has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Jerez CF.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for SP Villafranca.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Tercera RFEF - Group 14 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 68%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SP Villafranca Jerez CF
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 14
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Jerez CF
2:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs SP Villafranca
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 Club Friendly
SP Villafranca vs Jerez CF
1:0
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Jerez CF
3:2
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs SP Villafranca
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Quintero J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Minon J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Chavez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SP Villafranca 95 / 100
Jerez CF 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SP Villafranca Jerez CF

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SP Villafranca scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Jerez CF let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

SP Villafranca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Jerez CF lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SP Villafranca VS Jerez CF
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722