Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 14 2010/2011

Villanovense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sp. Villanueva play Villanovense in the Tercera Division - Group 14 2010/2011. Villanovense are favorites here. Recently, Sp. Villanueva averaged 0.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Villanovense averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. In past meetings, Sp. Villanueva won 1, Villanovense won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 5, 2012 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Sp. Villanueva and 1.30 for Villanovense. This points to a Villanovense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%

Sp. Villanueva

15%

Draws

72%

Villanovense

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Sp. Villanueva picked up more points recently compared to Villanovense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 51%

Over 2.5 Goals 34%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Sp. Villanueva Clean Sheet 19%

Villanovense Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 46%

Second Half Goal 48%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sp. Villanueva	Villanovense
Matches Played	32	33
Wins	2	15
Draws	6	7
Losses	24	11
Goals Scored	0.38	1.33
Goals Conceded	1.09	1.06

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2012 Segunda RFEF - Group 4

Sp. Villanueva vs Villanovense

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Sep 11, 2011 Segunda RFEF - Group 4

Villanovense vs Sp. Villanueva

Possession: 55% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

3:1

Mar 27, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Sp. Villanueva vs Villanovense

Possession: 52% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Nov 7, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Villanovense vs Sp. Villanueva

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 4 - 4

2:1

Apr 19, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Villanovense vs Sp. Villanueva

Possession: 60% - 55% Cards: 4 - 3

3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sp. Villanueva 16 / 100

Villanovense 68 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sp. Villanueva Villanovense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villanovense Win (2)

Secondary Pick Villanovense & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +160%

20.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +21.4%

3.57

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sp. Villanueva attacking → ← attacking Villanovense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Villanueva scored in 28% of their last 32 games.

Villanovense let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Sp. Villanueva went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Villanovense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

12 Points in last 5 52

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villanovense	38	29	6	3	83:30	93
2	Sp. Villanueva	38	29	5	4	81:24	92
3	Arroyo	38	20	10	8	62:36	70
4	Jerez CF	38	18	10	10	61:32	64
5	Merida UD	38	15	13	10	48:32	58
6	Santa Amalia	38	15	11	12	55:49	56
7	Don Benito	38	16	8	14	48:47	56
8	Moralo	38	14	12	12	47:45	54
9	Miajadas	38	15	9	14	38:41	54
10	Sanvicenteno	38	13	12	13	47:39	51
11	Ciduad de Plasencia	38	14	7	17	41:47	49
12	Diter Zafra	38	13	10	15	45:50	49
13	UP Plasencia	38	11	14	13	39:48	47
14	CD Coria	38	12	11	15	42:52	47
15	Atletico San Jose Promesas	38	12	8	18	52:61	44
16	UD Badajoz	38	12	6	20	53:68	42
17	Valdelacalzada	38	10	9	19	38:52	39
18	CD Santa Marta	38	9	8	21	34:58	35
19	Olivenza CP	38	6	12	20	39:72	30
20	Imperio Merida	38	5	3	30	28:98	18