Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spaeri vs Gagra

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Tsintsadze M.
15'
Pipia G.
26'
Bunturi G.

AI Match Summary

The Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga game between Spaeri and Gagra finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spaeri.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Spaeri
35%
Draws
46%
Gagra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gagra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gagra come out ahead of Spaeri on wins alone.
  • Model gives Gagra a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Spaeri have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Spaeri Clean Sheet 11%
Gagra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spaeri Gagra
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 10 11
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.33 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
1:1
May 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:0
Mar 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
0:3
Nov 5, 2024 Georgian Cup
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2
Dec 12, 2022 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spaeri Compare

Top Goalscorer Bunturi G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tsetskhladze G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Gagra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spaeri 22 / 100
Gagra 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spaeri Gagra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gagra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Spaeri found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Spaeri remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Spaeri VS Gagra
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spaeri

(Home)
21 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 4
Dila Gori
13 Sept
Iberia 1999
1 : 0
Spaeri
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
05 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
2 : 2
Spaeri
30 Aug
Dinamo Batumi
3 : 0
Spaeri
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Gagra

(Away)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
2 Iberia 1999 26 14 4 8 37:28 46
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 43:29 45
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)