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Spaeri vs Gagra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spaeri host Gagra in the Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Spaeri at 1.34 goals for, 1.66 against; Gagra at 1.2 for, 1.33 against. Head-to-head, Spaeri have won 4 to Gagra's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 17, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.13 - 1.81) back Gagra to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Spaeri
35%
Draws
46%
Gagra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gagra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Gagra have won more games recently than Spaeri.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Spaeri here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Spaeri Clean Sheet 11%
Gagra Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spaeri Gagra
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 10 11
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.34 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
1:1
May 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:0
Mar 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
0:3
Nov 5, 2024 Georgian Cup
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2
Dec 12, 2022 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spaeri 30 / 100
Gagra 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spaeri Gagra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Spaeri scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Spaeri has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Spaeri VS Gagra
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spaeri

(Home)
21 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 4
Dila Gori
13 Sept
Iberia 1999
1 : 0
Spaeri
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
05 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
2 : 2
Spaeri
30 Aug
Dinamo Batumi
3 : 0
Spaeri
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Gagra

(Away)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 45:30 48
2 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Iberia 1999 27 14 4 9 38:30 46
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)