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World

World Championship 2026 Estadio José Zorrilla

Bulgaria

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Spain play Bulgaria in the World Championship 2026. Spain are favorites here. Recently, Spain averaged 2.53 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Bulgaria averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, Spain won 4, Bulgaria won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 14, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Spain and 1.32 for Bulgaria. This points to a Spain double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%

Spain

25%

Draws

17%

Bulgaria

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Spain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Spain picked up more points recently compared to Bulgaria.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 1.32 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Spain Clean Sheet 18%

Bulgaria Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Spain	Bulgaria
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	23	6
Draws	6	10
Losses	1	14
Goals Scored	2.53	1.03
Goals Conceded	0.83	1.77
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	2.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2025 World Championship

Spain vs Bulgaria

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 1 - 0

4:0

Sep 4, 2025 World Championship

Bulgaria vs Spain

Possession: 40% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

0:3

Nov 20, 2002 Friendly International

Spain vs Bulgaria

Possession: 42% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Jun 24, 1998 World Championship

Spain vs Bulgaria

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 0 - 2

6:1

Jun 9, 1996 Euro

Spain vs Bulgaria

Possession: 57% - 53% Cards: 1 - 4

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Merino M.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Bulgaria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.95

Avg xA / game 1.19

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain 56 / 100

Bulgaria 17 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Spain Bulgaria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain Win (1)

Secondary Pick Spain & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16%

2.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Spain attacking → ← attacking Bulgaria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spain scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Bulgaria let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Spain went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Bulgaria lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

75 Points in last 5 28

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.14

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.71

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0