Sport Picks
Match Events
2'
2'
Lamine Yamal
Assist: Baena A.
18'
18'
Pongracic M.
28'
28'
Beljo D.
Assist: Perisic I.
AI Match Summary
The UEFA Nations League game between Spain and Croatia finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spain.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Spain carry the better recent record into this one.
- 53% — that's where the model lands on Spain taking it.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Spain here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Spain Clean Sheet 20%
Croatia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spain | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 30 |
| Wins | 28 | 17 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 1 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.51 | 1.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.77 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 15, 2024 Euro
Spain vs Croatia
3:0
Jun 18, 2023 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Spain
0:1
Jun 28, 2021 Euro
Croatia vs Spain
3:5
Nov 15, 2018 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Spain
3:2
Sep 11, 2018 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs Croatia
6:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Spain Compare
Top Goalscorer Lamine Yamal
2 Goals Assists Leader Pubill M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Croatia Compare
Top Goalscorer Beljo D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spain 85 / 100
Croatia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spain Croatia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Spain Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Spain's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 35 recent games.
Games between these two average 4.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Spain stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Croatia conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Spain VS Croatia
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Spain
(Home) 29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
26 Sept
England
2 : 3 Spain
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0 Argentina
14 Jul
France
0 : 2 Spain
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1 Belgium
Page 1 of 7
29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0 Argentina
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1 Belgium
02 Jul
Spain
3 : 0 Austria
21 Jun
Spain
4 : 0 Saudi Arabia
Page 1 of 5
Croatia
(Away) 29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
26 Sept
Czech Republic
1 : 2 Croatia
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1 Croatia
27 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1 Ghana
23 Jun
Panama
0 : 1 Croatia
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
26 Sept
Czech Republic
1 : 2 Croatia
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1 Croatia
23 Jun
Panama
0 : 1 Croatia
17 Jun
England
4 : 2 Croatia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 4 | Serbia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 2 | England | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 3 | Denmark | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
