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Spain vs France

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 MHPArena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spain play France in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Spain averaged 2.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. France averaged 2.21 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Spain won 3, France won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 5, 2025 ended 5:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Spain and 1.50 for France. This points to a Spain double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Spain
15%
Draws
39%
France
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain picked up more points recently compared to France.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Spain Clean Sheet 16%
France Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spain France
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 21 21
Draws 6 3
Losses 1 5
Goals Scored 2.57 2.21
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
5:4
Jul 9, 2024 Euro
Spain vs France
2:1
Oct 10, 2021 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
1:2
Mar 28, 2017 Friendly International
France vs Spain
0:2
Sep 4, 2014 Friendly International
France vs Spain
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Merino M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

France Compare

Top Goalscorer Cherki R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kolo Muani R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain 45 / 100
France 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spain France

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Spain or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Spain attacking → ← attacking France

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spain scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

France let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Spain went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

France lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 66
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88