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Spain W vs Germany W Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Leon M.
34'
Gwinn G.
59'
Cerci S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Spain W
15%
Draws
44%
Germany W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Germany W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Spain W lately — more wins on the board than Germany W.
  • Model gives Spain W a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Spain W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Germany W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Spain W Clean Sheet 18%
Germany W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spain W Germany W
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 23 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 2.87 2.48
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 2, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Germany W
3:0
Nov 28, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Germany W vs Spain W
0:0
Jul 23, 2025 Euro Women
Germany W vs Spain W
0:1
Aug 9, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Spain W vs Germany W
0:1
Jul 12, 2022 Euro Women
Germany W vs Spain W
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain W Compare

Top Goalscorer Pina C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Germany W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain W 76 / 100
Germany W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spain W Germany W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spain W scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Spain W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Germany W conceded in 52% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Spain W VS Germany W
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spain W

(Home)
09 Jun
Iceland W
1 : 6
Spain W
05 Jun
Spain W
4 : 0
England W
18 Apr
Spain W
5 : 0
Ukraine W
14 Apr
England W
1 : 0
Spain W
07 Mar
Ukraine W
1 : 3
Spain W
Page 1 of 7

Germany W

(Away)
09 Jun
Slovenia W
0 : 2
Germany W
05 Jun
Germany W
2 : 0
Norway W
18 Apr
Austria W
0 : 0
Germany W
14 Apr
Germany W
5 : 1
Austria W
07 Mar
Norway W
0 : 4
Germany W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Germany W 3
France W 2
Spain W 5
Sweden W 0
Final
Germany W 0
Spain W 3
France W 4
Sweden W 3