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Spalding United vs Real Bedford

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Mon, May 4, 2026
4 - 2
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Ceesay Y.
55' Event
Stevens B.
83' Event
Setchell J.

AI Match Summary

Spalding United in this Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Spalding United
22%
Draws
18%
Real Bedford
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Spalding United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Spalding United lately — more wins on the board than Real Bedford.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Spalding United taking it.
  • Spalding United have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Spalding United, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Spalding United Clean Sheet 10%
Real Bedford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spalding United Real Bedford
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 19 17
Draws 8 6
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 2.13 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Spalding United vs Real Bedford
4:2
Dec 20, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Spalding United vs Real Bedford
3:3
Aug 9, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Real Bedford vs Spalding United
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spalding United Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceesay Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cybulski B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Real Bedford Compare

Top Goalscorer Stevens B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Setchell J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spalding United 56 / 100
Real Bedford 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spalding United Real Bedford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Spalding United scored in 91% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Spalding United went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Real Bedford has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Spalding United VS Real Bedford
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Spalding United

(Home)
18 Jul
Spalding United
2 : 2
Scunthorpe
04 May
Spalding United
4 : 2
Real Bedford
29 Apr
Spalding United
1 : 0
Halesowen
25 Apr
Worcester
4 : 4
Spalding United
18 Apr
Leiston
2 : 2
Spalding United
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Real Bedford

(Away)
14 Jul
Real Bedford
2 : 8
Boreham Wood
11 Jul
Real Bedford
4 : 4
Harborough
04 May
Spalding United
4 : 2
Real Bedford
29 Apr
Real Bedford
3 : 1
Kettering
25 Apr
Bromsgrove
1 : 3
Real Bedford
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Spalding United1
Halesowen0
Real Bedford3
Kettering1
Final
Spalding United4
Real Bedford2