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Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Lukoil Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Ugalde M.
39'
Sub
Osipenko M. In: Fernandez R.
Out: Osipenko M.
46'
Sub
Massalyga N. In: Costa Martins J. M.
Out: Massalyga N.

AI Match Summary

Spartak Moscow host Dynamo Moscow in the Russian Cup 2025/2026. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Spartak Moscow at 1.13 goals for, 0.75 against; Dynamo Moscow at 2.25 for, 0.88 against. Head-to-head, Spartak Moscow have won 1 to Dynamo Moscow's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Mar 18, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 1.50, favoring Spartak Moscow. Spartak Moscow in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Spartak Moscow
6%
Draws
90%
Dynamo Moscow
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Dynamo Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Spartak Moscow has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Dynamo Moscow.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Dynamo Moscow.
  • Cup tournament structure in Russian Cup 2025/2026 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Spartak Moscow Clean Sheet 16%
Dynamo Moscow Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Moscow Dynamo Moscow
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 18 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.13 2.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Russian Cup
Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
1:0
Mar 5, 2026 Russian Cup
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
5:2
Dec 6, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
2:2
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Dynamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Wooh C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Dynamo Moscow Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Moscow 10 / 100
Dynamo Moscow 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Moscow Dynamo Moscow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DYN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Moscow scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Dynamo Moscow let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Spartak Moscow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dynamo Moscow lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Moscow VS Dynamo Moscow
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Zenit St Petersburg2
Dynamo Moscow3
Spartak Moscow6
Lokomotiv Moscow3
Dynamo Makhachkala2
CSKA Moscow3
Orenburg1
Krasnodar7
Semi-finals
Dynamo Moscow5
Spartak Moscow3
CSKA Moscow3
Krasnodar5
Final
Dynamo Moscow0
Krasnodar1