Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Spartak, Varna
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Stojanovski G.
Assist: Lopes J.
22'
Lozev D.
30' Event
Stojanovski G.
Assist: Xande

AI Match Summary

Spartak Varna in this efbet League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spartak Varna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Spartak Varna
35%
Draws
41%
Lok. Sofia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lok. Sofia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Lok. Sofia haven't matched Spartak Varna's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 14%
Lok. Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
0:1
May 22, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
2:2
Aug 22, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
0:0
Mar 28, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Varna Compare

Top Goalscorer Stojanovski G.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Lok. Sofia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna 31 / 100
Lok. Sofia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lok. Sofia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lok. Sofia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Spartak Varna found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Spartak Varna went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna VS Lok. Sofia
2 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Varna

(Home)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
13 Sept
Slavia Sofia
0 : 0
Spartak Varna
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Ludogorets
22 Aug
Levski Sofia
6 : 0
Spartak Varna
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Lok. Sofia

(Away)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
16 Sept
Lok. Sofia
0 : 2
CSKA Sofia
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Sofia
1 : 2
Ludogorets
31 Aug
Dunav Ruse
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
9 Botev Vratsa 37 13 14 10 36:32 53
10 Lok. Sofia 37 11 14 12 51:48 47
11 Slavia Sofia 37 12 10 15 42:44 46
12 Spartak Varna 37 8 13 16 35:57 37
13 Septemvri Sofia 37 9 9 19 32:64 36
14 Beroe 37 7 13 17 28:52 34
15 Dobrudzha 37 8 7 22 28:52 31
16 Montana 37 4 11 22 21:55 23
Relegation - efbet League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Main)