Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Spartak, Varna
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Stojanovski G.
Assist: Lopes J.
22'
Lozev D.
30' Event
Stojanovski G.
Assist: Xande

AI Match Summary

Spartak Varna in this efbet League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spartak Varna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Spartak Varna
28%
Draws
22%
Lok. Sofia
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Spartak Varna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Lok. Sofia haven't matched Spartak Varna's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Spartak Varna a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 20%
Lok. Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia
Matches Played 28 25
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.88 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
2:2
Aug 22, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
0:0
Mar 28, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
2:1
Oct 6, 2024 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Varna Compare

Top Goalscorer Stojanovski G.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Lok. Sofia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna 49 / 100
Lok. Sofia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lok. Sofia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 25 matches.

Spartak Varna found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Spartak Varna went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna VS Lok. Sofia
1.88 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Varna

(Home)
17 Jul
Spartak Varna
2 : 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia
11 Jul
Spartak Varna
7 : 3
Dobrudzha
08 Jul
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Nesebar
04 Jul
Botev Plovdiv
1 : 0
Spartak Varna
27 Jun
Spartak Varna
0 : 0
Dunav Ruse
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Lok. Sofia

(Away)
21 Jul
Botev Plovdiv
1 : 1
Lok. Sofia
11 Jul
Lok. Sofia
0 : 0
Teuta
04 Jul
Lok. Sofia
3 : 3
Dukagjini
26 Jun
Lok. Sofia
2 : 1
Drita
22 May
Spartak Varna
3 : 0
Lok. Sofia
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
9Botev Vratsa3713141036:3253
10Lok. Sofia3711141251:4847
11Slavia Sofia3712101542:4446
12Spartak Varna378131635:5737
13Septemvri Sofia37991932:6436
14Beroe377131728:5234
15Dobrudzha37872228:5231
16Montana374112221:5523
Relegation - efbet League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Main)