Sport Picks

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Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Stadion Spartak, Varna
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Aralica A.
45'
Dost E.
58' Event
Granchov A.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Lok. Sofia in this efbet League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lok. Sofia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Spartak Varna
35%
Draws
41%
Lok. Sofia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lok. Sofia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Spartak Varna have won more games recently than Lok. Sofia.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 14%
Lok. Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
0:1
May 22, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia
2:2
Aug 22, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
0:0
Mar 28, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Spartak Varna
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna 31 / 100
Lok. Sofia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna Lok. Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lok. Sofia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lok. Sofia has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Attacking prowess: Spartak Varna scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Spartak Varna has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna VS Lok. Sofia
2 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartak Varna

(Home)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
13 Sept
Slavia Sofia
0 : 0
Spartak Varna
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Ludogorets
22 Aug
Levski Sofia
6 : 0
Spartak Varna
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Lok. Sofia

(Away)
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Lok. Sofia
16 Sept
Lok. Sofia
0 : 2
CSKA Sofia
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Sofia
1 : 2
Ludogorets
31 Aug
Dunav Ruse
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 21:4 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24:7 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 16:7 23
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 10 7 1 2 19:10 22
5 Arda 10 5 2 3 15:12 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16:14 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 9:8 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10:15 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9:19 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8:18 8
11 Lok. Sofia 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
12 Lok. Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 5:13 7
13 Cherno More 10 1 3 6 11:20 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 10:19 5
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)