Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Spartak Varna vs Nesebar

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Ivanov A.
47' Event

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Spartak Varna
6%
Draws
90%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nesebar lately — more wins on the board than Spartak Varna.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 10%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna Nesebar
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 22
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 1.13 4.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 4.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Spartak Varna vs Nesebar
1:1
Feb 10, 2021 Club Friendly
Nesebar vs Spartak Varna
0:1
May 12, 2012 B PFG East
Spartak Varna vs Nesebar
3:1
Mar 3, 2012 B PFG East
Spartak Varna vs Nesebar
0:1
Sep 17, 2011 B PFG East
Nesebar vs Spartak Varna
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartak Varna Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nesebar Compare

Avg xG / game 4.32
Avg xA / game 2.64

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna 10 / 100
Nesebar 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna Nesebar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Varna found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Spartak Varna remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Nesebar conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna VS Nesebar
1.13 Goals Scored 4.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 88%