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Spartaks Jurmala vs Valmiera

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Optibet Virsliga 2022 Slokas Stadions, Jūrmala
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Gueye D.
Assist: Krollis R.
14' Event
Cudars K.
Assist: Yakuba R.
21' Event
Cudars K.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Optibet Virsliga 2022 game between Spartaks Jurmala and Valmiera finished 1-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valmiera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Spartaks Jurmala
20%
Draws
35%
Valmiera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spartaks Jurmala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Spartaks Jurmala haven't matched Valmiera's recent run of results.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Valmiera taking it.
  • Regular Optibet Virsliga 2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Valmiera have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Spartaks Jurmala Clean Sheet 14%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartaks Jurmala Valmiera
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 23
Draws 3 3
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 1.13 2.82
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.61
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2022 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs Valmiera
1:6
Jun 30, 2022 Virsliga
Valmiera vs Spartaks Jurmala
1:2
May 5, 2022 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs Valmiera
0:2
Mar 18, 2022 Virsliga
Valmiera vs Spartaks Jurmala
4:1
Oct 23, 2021 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs Valmiera
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartaks Jurmala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cudars K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.89

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartaks Jurmala 23 / 100
Valmiera 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartaks Jurmala Valmiera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Spartaks Jurmala has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Spartaks Jurmala scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Valmiera's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Valmiera
0 Goals Scored 2.13
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartaks Jurmala

(Home)
12 Nov
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Spartaks Jurmala
06 Nov
FK Auda Riga
0 : 1
Spartaks Jurmala
29 Oct
Spartaks Jurmala
2 : 0
FK Metta
22 Oct
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 1
Spartaks Jurmala
16 Oct
Super Nova
1 : 3
Spartaks Jurmala
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Valmiera

(Away)
19 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 4
Riga Mariners
12 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 2
Valmiera
05 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 2
FK Metta
30 Aug
Rezekne
1 : 6
Valmiera
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 36 26 7 3 101:25 85
2 Riga FC 36 26 3 7 68:23 81
3 RFS 36 22 10 4 83:32 76
4 FK Liepaja 36 21 7 8 72:42 70
5 FK Auda Riga 36 15 6 15 42:36 51
6 Tukums 2000 36 11 5 20 38:69 38
7 BFC Daugavpils 36 9 7 20 30:67 34
8 Spartaks Jurmala 36 9 4 23 37:75 31
9 FK Metta 36 5 7 24 41:86 22
10 Super Nova 36 4 8 24 24:81 20
Promotion - Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa Conference League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Relegation - Optibet Virsliga 2022 (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2023 (Main)