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Spartans vs Bonnyrigg Rose - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup Ainslie Park, Edinburgh
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Challenge Cup. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Spartans have averaged 1.74 scored and 1.55 conceded recently, against Bonnyrigg Rose's 2.17 scored and 1.53 conceded. Past meetings favor Spartans slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 29, 2025, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.75 - 1.69) back Bonnyrigg Rose to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Spartans
15%
Draws
48%
Bonnyrigg Rose
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bonnyrigg Rose

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bonnyrigg Rose lately — more wins on the board than Spartans.
  • Model gives Bonnyrigg Rose a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Bonnyrigg Rose arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Spartans, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Spartans Clean Sheet 13%
Bonnyrigg Rose Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartans Bonnyrigg Rose
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 10 4
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.74 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 Scottish Cup
Bonnyrigg Rose vs Spartans
1:2
Apr 26, 2025 League Two
Bonnyrigg Rose vs Spartans
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 League Two
Spartans vs Bonnyrigg Rose
3:1
Jan 21, 2025 League Two
Bonnyrigg Rose vs Spartans
2:2
Aug 10, 2024 League Two
Spartans vs Bonnyrigg Rose
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartans 22 / 100
Bonnyrigg Rose 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartans Bonnyrigg Rose

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bonnyrigg Rose Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Spartans found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Bonnyrigg Rose has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Spartans has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Spartans VS Bonnyrigg Rose
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartans

(Home)
03 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Kelty Hearts
25 Sept
Spartans
1 : 0
Dundee FC B
22 Sept
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0 : 0
Spartans
19 Sept
Dumbarton
3 : 0
Spartans
12 Sept
Spartans
5 : 1
Forfar Athletic
Page 1 of 7

Bonnyrigg Rose

(Away)
03 Oct
Clachnacuddin
2 : 0
Bonnyrigg Rose
26 Sept
Bonnyrigg Rose
3 : 0
Motherwell B
22 Sept
Bonnyrigg Rose
1 : 6
Airdrieonians
19 Sept
Bonnyrigg Rose
6 : 1
Stirling University
16 Sept
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1 : 2
Bonnyrigg Rose
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clydebank FC 5 4 1 0 13:4 13
2 Ross County 5 4 0 1 28:6 12
3 Airdrieonians 5 4 0 1 18:6 12
4 Elgin City 5 4 0 1 14:2 12
5 Cove Rangers 5 4 0 1 17:6 12
6 Peterhead 5 4 0 1 11:4 12
7 Alloa 5 3 2 0 12:5 11
8 Queen of the South 5 3 2 0 11:4 11
9 East Kilbride 5 3 1 1 17:12 10
10 Stirling 5 3 1 1 14:10 10
11 Edinburgh City 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
12 St. Mirren B 5 3 0 2 14:8 9
13 Hamilton 5 3 0 2 9:4 9
14 Montrose 5 3 0 2 11:7 9
15 Celtic B 5 2 3 0 15:12 9
16 Formartine Utd 5 3 0 2 11:8 9
17 Kelty Hearts 5 3 0 2 14:13 9
18 Bonnyrigg Rose 5 3 0 2 8:10 9
19 Hearts B 5 3 0 2 15:26 9
20 Annan 5 2 2 1 9:5 8
21 Spartans 5 2 2 1 8:6 8
22 Aberdeen B 5 2 1 2 10:8 7
23 East Fife 5 2 1 2 12:11 7
24 Forfar Athletic 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
25 Berwick 5 2 1 2 10:15 7
26 Dumbarton 5 2 1 2 10:15 7
27 Stranraer 5 2 0 3 13:12 6
28 Rangers B 5 2 0 3 11:10 6
29 Clachnacuddin 5 1 1 3 10:12 4
30 Kilmarnock B 5 1 1 3 8:13 4
31 Banks O' Dee 5 1 1 3 6:14 4
32 Fraserburgh 5 1 1 3 5:18 4
33 Clyde 5 1 0 4 6:14 3
34 Dundee Utd B 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
35 Cumbernauld Colts 5 0 2 3 4:13 2
36 Gala Fairydean Rovers 5 0 2 3 3:15 2
37 Cowdenbeath 5 0 0 5 4:12 0
38 Dundee FC B 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
39 Hibernian B 5 0 0 5 2:12 0
40 Motherwell B 5 0 0 5 4:18 0
Promotion - Challenge Cup (Play Offs)