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Stadium Background

Spezia vs Frosinone

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Calo G.
36'
Romano A.
37' Event
Kvernadze G.
Assist: Ghedjemis F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Spezia and Frosinone finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Frosinone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Spezia
15%
Draws
34%
Frosinone
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Frosinone come out ahead of Spezia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Spezia's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Spezia Clean Sheet 20%
Frosinone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spezia Frosinone
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 17
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 1.61 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie B
Spezia vs Frosinone
0:2
Dec 20, 2025 Serie B
Frosinone vs Spezia
2:1
Apr 25, 2025 Serie B
Frosinone vs Spezia
2:2
Aug 24, 2024 Serie B
Spezia vs Frosinone
2:1
Aug 20, 2020 Serie B
Spezia vs Frosinone
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spezia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Frosinone Compare

Top Goalscorer Kvernadze G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ghedjemis F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spezia 58 / 100
Frosinone 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spezia Frosinone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spezia went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Spezia scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Frosinone's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Spezia VS Frosinone
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Spezia

(Home)
21 Sept
Spezia
3 : 1
Vis Pesaro
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
06 Sept
Sambenedettese
1 : 2
Spezia
02 Sept
Spezia
3 : 0
Vado
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Frosinone

(Away)
20 Sept
Frosinone
2 : 0
Como
12 Sept
Genoa
1 : 1
Frosinone
06 Sept
Frosinone
3 : 2
Venezia
02 Sept
Sassuolo
2 : 1
Frosinone
29 Aug
Fiorentina
0 : 3
Frosinone
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)