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Sport Boys vs Cusco

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Miguel Grau
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Liga 1 encounter between Sport Boys and Cusco promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Sport Boys averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Cusco shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Sport Boys, 3 wins for Cusco, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 17.05.26 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.19 for Sport Boys and 0.88 for Cusco, suggesting the primary value lies in the Cusco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sport Boys
16%
Draws
42%
Cusco
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Cusco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Sport Boys picked up more points recently compared to Cusco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Sport Boys Clean Sheet 25%
Cusco Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Boys Cusco
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.14 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.05.26 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs Cusco
1:0
07.11.25 Liga 1
Cusco vs Sport Boys
3:0
06.07.25 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs Cusco
1:2
05.08.24 Liga 1
Cusco vs Sport Boys
3:1
24.02.24 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs Cusco
3:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sport Boys

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Cusco

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Boys Compare

Top Goalscorer Nequecaur L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Cusco Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Boys 43 / 100
Cusco 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Boys Cusco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cusco or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Sport Boys 46%
Cusco 34%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Sport Boys 40%
Cusco 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Sport Boys 42%
Cusco 42%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Sport Boys 44%
Cusco 40%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Sport Boys 38%
Cusco 46%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Sport Boys 48%
Cusco 48%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sport Boys attacking → ← attacking Cusco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport Boys have found the net in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Cusco have conceded at least one goal in 78% of their last 32 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Sport Boys remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Cusco suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 42
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016