Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sport Boys vs FBC Melgar

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Vidales J.
Assist: Quagliata N.
21' Event
Vidales J.
Assist: Zegarra M.
42'
Guzman L.

AI Match Summary

FBC Melgar in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored FBC Melgar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sport Boys
33%
Draws
27%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sport Boys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • FBC Melgar have won more games recently than Sport Boys.
  • Sport Boys are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FBC Melgar have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sport Boys Clean Sheet 68%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Boys FBC Melgar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs FBC Melgar
1:3
Oct 20, 2025 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs FBC Melgar
1:0
Jun 14, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys
2:1
Oct 18, 2024 Liga 1
Sport Boys vs FBC Melgar
0:2
May 5, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Boys Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Vidales J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Zegarra M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Boys 50 / 100
FBC Melgar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Boys FBC Melgar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sport Boys scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

FBC Melgar let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sport Boys remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sport Boys VS FBC Melgar
1 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Boys

(Home)
25 Jul
Sport Boys
2 : 0
AD Tarma
19 Jul
Los Chankas
1 : 0
Sport Boys
11 Jul
Sport Boys
1 : 0
Comerciantes FC
28 Jun
Sport Boys
3 : 0
AD Cantolao
13 Jun
U. San Martin
2 : 2
Sport Boys
Page 1 of 6

FBC Melgar

(Away)
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1
Sporting Cristal
18 Jul
Cienciano
1 : 3
FBC Melgar
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0
Moquegua
18 Jun
LDU Quito
0 : 0
FBC Melgar
17 Jun
LDU Quito
1 : 1
FBC Melgar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)