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Sport Sebaco vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Herrera W.
35' Event
Baez A.
36' Event
Rodriguez O.

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Sport Sebaco
30%
Draws
62%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteli lately — more wins on the board than Sport Sebaco.
  • Esteli are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Sport Sebaco Clean Sheet 12%
Esteli Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Sebaco Esteli
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 10 22
Draws 5 7
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.17 2.12
Goals Conceded 1.6 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
0:5
Apr 20, 2026 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
2:3
Feb 19, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Sport Sebaco
3:2
Nov 7, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Sport Sebaco
3:0
Sep 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Sebaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Herrera W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Baez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Casado E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Sebaco 10 / 100
Esteli 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Sebaco Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Sport Sebaco found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Esteli has conceded goals in 56% of their last 34 outings.

Sport Sebaco went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Sebaco VS Esteli
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Sebaco

(Home)
10 Sept
Sport Sebaco
0 : 1
Diriangen
06 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 3
UNAN-Managua
02 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 1
Walter Ferreti
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
22 Aug
Managua FC
6 : 1
Sport Sebaco
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)