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Sport Sebaco vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Blanco R.
45' Event
Bonilla B.
(Penalty)
52' Event
Bonilla B.

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Sport Sebaco
30%
Draws
62%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Esteli have won more games recently than Sport Sebaco.
  • Model gives Esteli a 62% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Esteli have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sport Sebaco Clean Sheet 11%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Sebaco Esteli
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 10 23
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.6 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
0:5
Apr 20, 2026 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
2:3
Feb 19, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Sport Sebaco
3:2
Nov 7, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Sport Sebaco
3:0
Sep 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs Esteli
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Sebaco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Blanco R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonilla B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Sebaco 18 / 100
Esteli 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Sebaco Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Sport Sebaco scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Esteli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 37 matches.

Recent resilience: Sport Sebaco stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Sebaco VS Esteli
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Sebaco

(Home)
10 Sept
Sport Sebaco
0 : 1
Diriangen
06 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 3
UNAN-Managua
02 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 1
Walter Ferreti
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
22 Aug
Managua FC
6 : 1
Sport Sebaco
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 9 2 1 6 12:16 7
9 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
10 Jalapa 9 1 1 7 4:14 4
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)