Sport Picks
Sporting CP vs Arouca
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon 
Match Events
3'
3'
Inacio G.
Assist: Araujo M.
17'
17'
Suarez L.
Assist: Fresneda I.
36'
36'
van Ee E.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal game between Sporting CP and Arouca finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sporting CP
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sporting CP come out ahead of Arouca on wins alone.
- Sporting CP are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Sporting CP Clean Sheet 20%
Arouca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sporting CP | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 31 |
| Wins | 23 | 13 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 4 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.39 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.89 | 1.26 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Liga Portugal
Sporting CP vs Arouca
2:2
Jan 24, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Sporting CP
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Liga Portugal
Sporting CP vs Arouca
6:0
Feb 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Sporting CP vs Arouca
2:2
Sep 13, 2024 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Sporting CP
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sporting CP Compare
Top Goalscorer Inacio G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Suarez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Nandin D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sporting CP 85 / 100
Arouca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sporting CP Arouca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sporting CP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sporting CP found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (36 games).
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Sporting CP went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Arouca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
Sporting CP VS Arouca
3.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sporting CP
(Home) 19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
13 Sept
Famalicao
1 : 1 Sporting CP
09 Sept
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Galatasaray
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
28 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 4 Sporting CP
Page 1 of 8
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
09 Sept
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Galatasaray
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
14 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 2 Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 5
Arouca
(Away) 19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Arouca
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
