Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sporting CP vs Arsenal

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Sporting CP Logo

Sporting CP

0 - 1
FT
Arsenal Logo

Arsenal

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Morita H.
62'
Sub
Simoes J. In: Braganca D.
Out: Simoes J.
63'
Zubimendi M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arsenal in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sporting CP
20%
Draws
42%
Arsenal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arsenal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Arsenal have won more games recently than Sporting CP.
  • Model gives Sporting CP a 38% chance of winning this.
  • Arsenal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Arsenal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sporting CP Clean Sheet 68%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting CP Arsenal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 19
Draws 8 3
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.47 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 Champions League
Arsenal vs Sporting CP
0:0
Apr 7, 2026 Champions League
Sporting CP vs Arsenal
0:1
Nov 26, 2024 Champions League
Sporting CP vs Arsenal
1:5
Mar 16, 2023 Europa League
Arsenal vs Sporting CP
1:2
Mar 9, 2023 Europa League
Sporting CP vs Arsenal
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting CP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Arsenal Compare

Top Goalscorer Havertz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting CP 86 / 100
Arsenal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting CP Arsenal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting CP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting CP scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Sporting CP remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Arsenal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sporting CP VS Arsenal
2.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting CP

(Home)
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2
Arouca
13 Sept
Famalicao
1 : 1
Sporting CP
09 Sept
Sporting CP
3 : 1
Galatasaray
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Nacional
28 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 4
Sporting CP
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal

(Away)
19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0
Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4
Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2
Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1
Arsenal
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1
Chelsea
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1