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Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Alberto Gallardo
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Salazar A.
32'
Sub
Sosa L. In: Gonzalez J.
Out: Sosa L.
50'
Sub
Salazar A. In: Portales J.
Out: Salazar A.

AI Match Summary

Sporting Cristal in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sporting Cristal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Sporting Cristal
39%
Draws
31%
Deportivo Garcilaso
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Sporting Cristal have won more games recently than Deportivo Garcilaso.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sporting Cristal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 68%
Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Cristal Deportivo Garcilaso
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0
Feb 1, 2026 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal
0:1
Jun 15, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
3:2
Sep 17, 2024 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Cristal Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavara M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Deportivo Garcilaso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Cristal 41 / 100
Deportivo Garcilaso 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Cristal Deportivo Garcilaso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sporting Cristal scored in 86% of their last 37 outings.

Recent resilience: Sporting Cristal stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Deportivo Garcilaso has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Cristal VS Deportivo Garcilaso
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cusco11004:13
2FBC Melgar11003:13
3Atletico Grau11003:13
4Universitario de Deportes11002:13
5Sporting Cristal11001:03
6Comerciantes Unidos10102:21
7Moquegua10102:21
8Juan Pablo II10102:21
9FC Cajamarca10102:21
10A. Lima00000:00
11Sport Boys00000:00
12Sport Huancayo00000:00
13Los Chankas00000:00
14AD Tarma10011:20
15Deportivo Garcilaso10010:10
16Cienciano10011:30
17Cajamarca10011:30
18Alianza Atl.10011:40