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Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Sporting Cristal Logo

Sporting Cristal

5 - 0
FT
AD Tarma Logo

AD Tarma

Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Narvaez J.
19' Event
Hoyos M.
28'
Tavara M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-0. The second leg ended 5-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Sporting Cristal
15%
Draws
14%
AD Tarma
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Cristal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Sporting Cristal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sporting Cristal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Sporting Cristal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sporting Cristal, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Sporting Cristal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 20%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Cristal AD Tarma
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.74 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
5:0
Sep 27, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
0:1
May 24, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
3:2
May 17, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Cristal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hoyos M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

AD Tarma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Cristal 85 / 100
AD Tarma 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Cristal AD Tarma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Cristal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Cristal's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: Sporting Cristal remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

AD Tarma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Cristal VS AD Tarma
2.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Cristal

(Home)
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
06 Sept
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
Los Chankas
Page 1 of 7

AD Tarma

(Away)
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl. 3
Pirata 2
Cajamarca 4
ADA Jaen 1
Atletico Grau 2
Carlos Mannucci 1
Sport Boys 1
Comerciantes FC 0
Sporting Cristal 2
Tacna Heroica 1
Sport Huancayo 3
Los Chankas 1
Cienciano 2
AD Tarma 3
Moquegua 1
Deportivo Garcilaso 0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl. 2
Cajamarca 1
Atletico Grau 2
Sport Boys 3
Sporting Cristal 4
Sport Huancayo 1
AD Tarma 2
Moquegua 0
Semi-finals
Alianza Atl. 8
Sport Boys 2
Sporting Cristal 6
AD Tarma 0
Final
Alianza Atl. -
Sporting Cristal -