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Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Alberto Gallardo
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Vizeu F.
26'
Alcantar J.
45'
Lazo M.

AI Match Summary

FBC Melgar in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FBC Melgar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Sporting Cristal
28%
Draws
22%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Sporting Cristal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • FBC Melgar average 1.75 goals a game right now, well clear of Sporting Cristal's 1.63.
  • Model gives Sporting Cristal a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors FBC Melgar here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 68%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Cristal FBC Melgar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:2
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
1:0
Aug 22, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
2:0
Mar 14, 2024 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Cristal Compare

Top Goalscorer Vizeu F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuesta B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bordacahar C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Cristal 59 / 100
FBC Melgar 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Cristal FBC Melgar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Cristal found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Solid form: Sporting Cristal remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

FBC Melgar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Cristal VS FBC Melgar
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016