Sport Picks

Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 4 2024/2025

Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cetatea Turnu Magurele is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to Sporting Rosiori, backed by a win probability of 73%. Sporting Rosiori averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in recent matches. Cetatea Turnu Magurele shows a form average of 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Sporting Rosiori, 4 wins for Cetatea Turnu Magurele, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 30.07.25 ended in a 1:3 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.17 for Sporting Rosiori and 1.36 for Cetatea Turnu Magurele, suggesting the primary value lies in the Cetatea Turnu Magurele double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%

Sporting Rosiori

15%

Draws

73%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Sporting Rosiori picked up more points recently compared to Cetatea Turnu Magurele.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.36 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 87%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%

Sporting Rosiori Clean Sheet 18%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 78%

Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sporting Rosiori	Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Matches Played	30	41
Wins	3	23
Draws	2	8
Losses	25	10
Goals Scored	0.77	1.93
Goals Conceded	2.83	1.27

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

30.07.25 Romanian Cup

Sporting Rosiori vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Possession: 46% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

1:3

02.05.25 Liga 3 - Seria 4

Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs Sporting Rosiori

Possession: 44% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

4:1

29.03.25 Liga 3 - Seria 4

Sporting Rosiori vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

1:4

15.03.25 Liga 3 - Seria 4

Sporting Rosiori vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Possession: 41% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

25.10.24 Liga 3 - Seria 4

Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs Sporting Rosiori

Possession: 58% - 41% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sporting Rosiori

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Rosiori 14 / 100

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 68 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sporting Rosiori Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cetatea Turnu Magurele Win (2)

Secondary Pick Cetatea Turnu Magurele & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +200%

25.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Cetatea Turnu Magurele will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Sporting Rosiori 13%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 58%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Sporting Rosiori will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Cetatea Turnu Magurele's early runs.

Sporting Rosiori 11%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 77%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Cetatea Turnu Magurele to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Sporting Rosiori tries to push forward.

Sporting Rosiori 12%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 73%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Cetatea Turnu Magurele increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Sporting Rosiori 13%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 69%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Sporting Rosiori's defense, opening up opportunities for Cetatea Turnu Magurele's forward line.

Sporting Rosiori 11%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 80%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Cetatea Turnu Magurele to manage the closing stages, while Sporting Rosiori searches for late drama.

Sporting Rosiori 14%

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 84%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sporting Rosiori attacking → ← attacking Cetatea Turnu Magurele

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Rosiori have found the net in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Cetatea Turnu Magurele have conceded at least one goal in 76% of their last 41 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.80 goals per match.

Sporting Rosiori remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Cetatea Turnu Magurele suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 77

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSM Alexandria	18	11	5	2	37:11	38
2	Progresul Spartac	18	12	2	4	24:12	38
3	CS Din. Bucuresti	18	11	2	5	35:21	35
4	Vedita Colonesti	18	7	6	5	29:18	27
5	Curtisoara	18	7	5	6	24:19	26
6	SCM Dunarea Giurgiu	18	6	5	7	17:25	23
7	LPS HD Clinceni	18	7	1	10	23:32	22
8	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	18	6	2	10	21:30	20
9	Petrolul Potcoava	18	4	5	9	19:25	17
10	Sporting Rosiori	18	2	1	15	11:47	7