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Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Giometti C.

AI Match Summary

Fossombrone in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fossombrone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Sporting Trestina
20%
Draws
51%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fossombrone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Sporting Trestina have won more games recently than Fossombrone.
  • Win probability leans Sporting Trestina's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Sporting Trestina Clean Sheet 16%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Trestina Fossombrone
Matches Played 32 27
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.16 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Trestina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Fossombrone Compare

Top Goalscorer Giometti C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Trestina 36 / 100
Fossombrone 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Trestina Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Trestina scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Fossombrone let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Sporting Trestina stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Trestina VS Fossombrone
1 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Trestina

(Home)
27 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 0
Termoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Sept
Lanciano FC
0 : 0
Sporting Trestina
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 7

Fossombrone

(Away)
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Fossombrone
2 : 4
Lanciano FC
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4
Aquila Calcio
06 Sept
Giulianova
1 : 2
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)