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Sporting Trestina vs Vigor Senigallia Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
De Feo G.
22' Event
Tomba A.
28' Event
Ferri Marini D.

AI Match Summary

Vigor Senigallia in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Sporting Trestina
20%
Draws
61%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vigor Senigallia lately — more wins on the board than Sporting Trestina.
  • Vigor Senigallia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Sporting Trestina Clean Sheet 10%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Trestina Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 12 11
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.18 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Sporting Trestina vs Vigor Senigallia
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Trestina Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferri Marini D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tatti E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer De Feo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tomba A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Trestina 10 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Trestina Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 7.00 goals when they meet.

Sporting Trestina's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Vigor Senigallia conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Sporting Trestina went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Trestina VS Vigor Senigallia
1 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Trestina

(Home)
27 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 0
Termoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Sept
Lanciano FC
0 : 0
Sporting Trestina
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 7

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)