Sport Picks
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
Argentina
Primera B Republica de Italia Stadium, Buenos Aires 
Match Events
30'
30'
Minnicelli A.
36'
36'
Aguirre D. E.
39'
39'
Vallejo L.
AI Match Summary
Sportivo Italiano in this Primera B matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sportivo Italiano.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
28%
22%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Sportivo Italiano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Sportivo Italiano have won more games recently than Dep. Merlo.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Sportivo Italiano taking it.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Sportivo Italiano have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Sportivo Italiano Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sportivo Italiano | Dep. Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 2.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2026 Primera B
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Primera B
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
1:0
May 3, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
1:2
Jul 20, 2024 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
1:1
Mar 2, 2024 Primera B
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sportivo Italiano Compare
Top Goalscorer Gimenez K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ordonez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Dep. Merlo Compare
Top Goalscorer Aguirre D. E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sportivo Italiano 59 / 100
Dep. Merlo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sportivo Italiano Dep. Merlo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sportivo Italiano has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Attacking prowess: Sportivo Italiano scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Dep. Merlo has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Sportivo Italiano VS Dep. Merlo
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Sportivo Italiano
(Home) 25 Jul
Ituzaingo
0 : 0 Sportivo Italiano
18 Jul
San Martin Burzaco
1 : 2 Sportivo Italiano
14 Jul
Sportivo Italiano
1 : 0 Villa San Carlos
10 Jul
CSD Liniers
0 : 1 Sportivo Italiano
05 Jul
Sportivo Italiano
1 : 1 Real Pilar
Page 1 of 6
14 Jul
Sportivo Italiano
1 : 0 Villa San Carlos
05 Jul
Sportivo Italiano
1 : 1 Real Pilar
13 Jun
Sportivo Italiano
0 : 1 Excursionistas
31 May
Sportivo Italiano
0 : 2 Argentino de Merlo
27 May
Sportivo Italiano
1 : 2 San Martin Burzaco
Page 1 of 3
Dep. Merlo
(Away) 18 Jul
CSD Liniers
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
14 Jul
Dep. Merlo
3 : 2 Real Pilar
10 Jul
UAI Urquiza
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
04 Jul
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Villa Dalmine
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
CSD Liniers
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
10 Jul
UAI Urquiza
0 : 0 Dep. Merlo
27 Jun
Excursionistas
5 : 0 Dep. Merlo
21 Jun
Arsenal Sarandi
4 : 2 Dep. Merlo
05 Jun
Talleres Remedios Escalada
2 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal Sarandi | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 37:19 | 50 |
| 2 | Excursionistas | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios Escalada | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 29:13 | 49 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 30:14 | 48 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 31:17 | 47 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 27:21 | 44 |
| 7 | Comunicaciones | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 8 | Laferrere | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:30 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Pilar | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29:29 | 37 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 30:31 | 37 |
| 11 | Dep. Merlo | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31:38 | 36 |
| 12 | San Martin Burzaco | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26:23 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino de Merlo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 26:24 | 35 |
| 14 | Dock Sud | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 26:24 | 31 |
| 15 | Argentino de Quilmes | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 25:28 | 31 |
| 16 | CSD Liniers | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 17:26 | 27 |
| 17 | Flandria | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 20:32 | 26 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 20:29 | 25 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 12:22 | 24 |
| 20 | Brown Adrogue | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 16:29 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 24:33 | 22 |
| 22 | Ituzaingo | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:45 | 10 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)