Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SS Pennarossa vs AC Libertas

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Morelli G.

AI Match Summary

AC Libertas in this Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AC Libertas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
SS Pennarossa
20%
Draws
36%
AC Libertas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SS Pennarossa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • AC Libertas have won more games recently than SS Pennarossa.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on AC Libertas taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
SS Pennarossa Clean Sheet 19%
AC Libertas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SS Pennarossa AC Libertas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.17 1
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Pennarossa vs AC Libertas
0:1
Nov 8, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SS Pennarossa
2:2
Mar 8, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Pennarossa vs AC Libertas
1:1
Nov 9, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SS Pennarossa
2:2
Apr 21, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SS Pennarossa
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SS Pennarossa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

AC Libertas Compare

Top Goalscorer Morelli G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SS Pennarossa 24 / 100
AC Libertas 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SS Pennarossa AC Libertas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Libertas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Libertas has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

SS Pennarossa found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: SS Pennarossa stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SS Pennarossa VS AC Libertas
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SS Pennarossa

(Home)
19 Sept
SS Pennarossa
3 : 1
Fiorentino
13 Sept
SP Cosmos
6 : 1
SS Pennarossa
09 Sept
SS Pennarossa
3 : 0
Cailungo
06 Sept
SS Pennarossa
1 : 4
SS Murata
30 Aug
Tre Fiori
5 : 2
SS Pennarossa
Page 1 of 6

AC Libertas

(Away)
18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1
SC Faetano
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1
AC Libertas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)