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SS Pennarossa vs SS Murata Prediction & H2H Stats

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Tolomeo M.
Assist: Bezzini R.
69' Event
De Paoli F.
(Penalty)
74'
Gjyla I.

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between SS Pennarossa and SS Murata finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SS Pennarossa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
SS Pennarossa
15%
Draws
28%
SS Murata
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SS Pennarossa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • SS Pennarossa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on SS Pennarossa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
SS Pennarossa Clean Sheet 17%
SS Murata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SS Pennarossa SS Murata
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 3
Draws 8 2
Losses 14 26
Goals Scored 1.17 0.74
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Pennarossa vs SS Murata
1:4
Mar 21, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Pennarossa vs SS Murata
2:0
Nov 30, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs SS Pennarossa
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Pennarossa vs SS Murata
0:4
Aug 31, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs SS Pennarossa
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SS Pennarossa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tolomeo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

SS Murata Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SS Pennarossa 48 / 100
SS Murata 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SS Pennarossa SS Murata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SS Pennarossa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SS Murata conceded in 97% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

SS Pennarossa found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: SS Murata has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SS Pennarossa VS SS Murata
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

SS Pennarossa

(Home)
19 Sept
SS Pennarossa
3 : 1
Fiorentino
13 Sept
SP Cosmos
6 : 1
SS Pennarossa
09 Sept
SS Pennarossa
3 : 0
Cailungo
06 Sept
SS Pennarossa
1 : 4
SS Murata
30 Aug
Tre Fiori
5 : 2
SS Pennarossa
Page 1 of 6

SS Murata

(Away)
18 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 2
SP Cosmos
12 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 2
San Giovanni
09 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 3
Virtus
06 Sept
SS Pennarossa
1 : 4
SS Murata
28 Aug
Folgore
5 : 0
SS Murata
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)