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St. Gallen vs Lugano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Swiss Cup Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Tue, Dec 1, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Swiss Cup. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: St. Gallen at 1.9 goals for, 1.77 against; Lugano at 2.61 for, 0.94 against. Head-to-head, St. Gallen have won 3 to Lugano's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 16, 2026, ending 4:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 2.44) point toward Lugano. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
St. Gallen
15%
Draws
46%
Lugano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • St. Gallen haven't matched Lugano's recent run of results.
  • Lugano are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Lugano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor St. Gallen, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
St. Gallen Clean Sheet 10%
Lugano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Gallen Lugano
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 17 22
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.9 2.61
Goals Conceded 1.77 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs St. Gallen
4:1
May 10, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs St. Gallen
1:2
Mar 17, 2026 Super League
St. Gallen vs Lugano
1:1
Nov 26, 2025 Super League
Lugano vs St. Gallen
1:3
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
St. Gallen vs Lugano
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Gallen 26 / 100
Lugano 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Gallen Lugano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Gallen scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Lugano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

St. Gallen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

St. Gallen VS Lugano
1.63 Goals Scored 2.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Gallen

(Home)
16 Oct
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 2
St. Gallen
11 Oct
St. Gallen
1 : 0
Lausanne
03 Oct
Bruhl SG
3 : 3
St. Gallen
20 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
St. Gallen
16 Sept
Lugano
4 : 1
St. Gallen
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Lugano

(Away)
18 Oct
Pully
0 : 4
Lugano
15 Oct
Lugano
3 : 2
Crvena zvezda
10 Oct
Lugano
4 : 0
Luzern
02 Oct
Lugano
1 : 3
Verona
20 Sept
Lausanne
0 : 4
Lugano
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Kaufdorf 0
Old Boys 5
Terre Sainte 0
Yverdon 5
Rorschach 2
Schaffhausen 4
FC Saxon-Sports 0
Thun 6
Mutschellen 3
FC Winkeln SG 4
Kosova Neuchatel 0
Lausanne 6
Courrendlin-Courroux 0
Grenchen 1
Regensdorf 0
Grasshoppers 5
Koniz 3
Munsingen 1
Wiesendangen 0
Bruhl SG 6
Biel 3
Aarau 4
Tuggen 1
Zurich 2
Young Fellows Juventus 1
Rapperswil-Jona 6
Thalwil 0
St. Gallen 3
Pully 2
Genolier-Begnins 0
Vedeggio 1
Lugano 10
FC Interlaken 1
Bulle 4
Rebstein 2
Wil 6
Zurich City SC 1
Winterthur 3
Buochs 0
Luzern 3
Taverne 2
Brunnen 1
Liestal 0
Young Boys 4
Amical Saint-Prex 1
Stade Nyonnais 3
Courtetelle 1
Basel 6
CS Italien 1
Lausanne Ouchy 8
Collex-Bossy 0
Etoile-Carouge 2
Cham 2
Kriens 0
Kerzers 1
Sion 6
FC Aesch 1
Langenthal 5
Meyrin 0
Xamax 1
Rotkreuz 4
Bellinzona 1
Bavois 0
Servette 7
1/16-finals
Old Boys 1
Yverdon 2
Schaffhausen 2
Thun 3
FC Winkeln SG 0
Lausanne 7
Grenchen 0
Grasshoppers 8
Koniz 0
Bruhl SG 2
Aarau 2
Zurich 0
Rapperswil-Jona 0
St. Gallen 2
Pully 0
Lugano 4
Bulle 0
Wil 1
Winterthur 0
Luzern 1
Taverne 0
Young Boys 5
Stade Nyonnais 0
Basel 3
Lausanne Ouchy 3
Etoile-Carouge 0
Cham 0
Sion 2
Langenthal 2
Xamax 3
Rotkreuz 0
Servette 4
1/8-finals
Yverdon -
Thun -
Lausanne -
Grasshoppers -
Bruhl SG -
Aarau -
St. Gallen -
Lugano -
Wil -
Luzern -
Young Boys -
Basel -
Lausanne Ouchy -
Sion -
Xamax -
Servette -
Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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