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St. George Willawong vs Acacia Ridge

Australia Australia

Brisbane Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

St. George Willawong play Acacia Ridge in the Brisbane Premier League. Acacia Ridge are favorites here. Recently, St. George Willawong averaged 0.9 goals scored and 2.35 conceded. Acacia Ridge averaged 2.03 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. In past meetings, St. George Willawong won 1, Acacia Ridge won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 11, 2021 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.85 for St. George Willawong and 1.13 for Acacia Ridge. This points to a Acacia Ridge double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
St. George Willawong
18%
Draws
58%
Acacia Ridge
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Acacia Ridge

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • St. George Willawong picked up more points recently compared to Acacia Ridge.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.85 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 21%
Acacia Ridge Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. George Willawong Acacia Ridge
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 5 15
Draws 6 3
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 0.9 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.35 2.1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2021 Brisbane Premier League
Acacia Ridge vs St. George Willawong
3:2
Apr 10, 2021 Brisbane Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Acacia Ridge
0:3
Aug 8, 2020 Brisbane Premier League
Acacia Ridge vs St. George Willawong
1:2
May 17, 2020 Brisbane Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Acacia Ridge
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. George Willawong Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Acacia Ridge Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaimes J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vargas G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. George Willawong 26 / 100
Acacia Ridge 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. George Willawong Acacia Ridge

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Acacia Ridge Win (2)
Secondary Pick Acacia Ridge & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

St. George Willawong attacking → ← attacking Acacia Ridge

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. George Willawong scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Acacia Ridge let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

St. George Willawong went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Acacia Ridge lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 48
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Albany Creek221930102:1860
2Bayside United22142648:2544
3The Lakes FC22133660:4542
4St. George Willawong22122856:3938
5Gravatt22103938:4133
6Acacia Ridge22103942:4733
7Toowong City2295847:4632
8Univ. of Queensland22731227:4624
9Centenary Stormers22651130:4923
10The Gap22451319:4417
11Western Spirit FC22441436:7016
12Brisbane Knights22421629:6414