Sport Picks
St. Georges vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ethiopia
Premier League 
Match Events
52'
52'
Daniel N.
63'
63'
Tefera D.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
35%
31%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Negele Arsi Ketema FC have won more games recently than St. Georges.
- 34% — that's where the model lands on St. Georges taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
St. Georges Clean Sheet 68%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | St. Georges | Negele Arsi Ketema FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 12 | 12 |
| Losses | 8 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 10, 2026 Premier League
St. Georges vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
1:1
Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
St. Georges vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
0:0
Oct 29, 2025 Premier League
Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs St. Georges
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
St. Georges Compare
Top Goalscorer Daniel N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Tefera D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
St. Georges 68 / 100
Negele Arsi Ketema FC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
St. Georges Negele Arsi Ketema FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick St. Georges Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
St. Georges went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
St. Georges's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Negele Arsi Ketema FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 1.00 goals.
Scoring Trends
St. Georges VS Negele Arsi Ketema FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
St. Georges
(Home) 10 Oct
St. Georges
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0 Fasil Kenema
22 Jun
Shire Endaselassie
0 : 0 St. Georges
14 Jun
St. Georges
3 : 0 Mechal SC
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10 Oct
St. Georges
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0 Fasil Kenema
14 Jun
St. Georges
3 : 0 Mechal SC
20 May
St. Georges
1 : 0 Hawassa
09 May
St. Georges
1 : 0 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
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Negele Arsi Ketema FC
(Away) 10 Oct
St. Georges
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1 Hawassa
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10 Oct
St. Georges
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
04 Jun
Welayta Dicha
0 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
14 May
Mechal SC
4 : 0 Negele Arsi Ketema FC
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adama City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 2 | St. Georges | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 3 | Welwalo Adigrat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 | Halaba Ketema FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 | Welayta Dicha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 | Fasil Kenema | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 | Hawassa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mechal SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Ethiopian Insurance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Sidama Bunna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Hadiya Hossana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Gamo Chencha FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 | Sheger Ketema FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
