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Stadium Background

St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Prediction & H2H Stats

Scotland Scotland

Premiership McDiarmid Park, Perth
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Fowler J.
Assist: Gullan J.
21'
John-Jules T.
37' Event
Kiltie G.
Assist: Lowery T.

AI Match Summary

The Premiership game between St Johnstone and Kilmarnock finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St Johnstone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
St Johnstone
35%
Draws
32%
Kilmarnock
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and St Johnstone come out ahead of Kilmarnock on wins alone.
  • Model gives St Johnstone a 33% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premiership form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 18%
Kilmarnock Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St Johnstone Kilmarnock
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.77 1.67
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
4:3
May 3, 2025 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
0:2
Feb 15, 2025 Premiership
Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
3:1
Nov 23, 2024 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
1:0
Aug 11, 2024 Premiership
Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St Johnstone Compare

Top Goalscorer Fowler J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diabate C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Kilmarnock Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiltie G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hugill J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St Johnstone 49 / 100
Kilmarnock 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St Johnstone Kilmarnock

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Johnstone Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: St Johnstone scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Kilmarnock has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

St Johnstone went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St Johnstone VS Kilmarnock
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

St Johnstone

(Home)
19 Sept
St Johnstone
1 : 1
Falkirk
09 Sept
St Johnstone
0 : 1
Celtic
06 Sept
St Johnstone
2 : 1
Hibernian
02 Sept
Dundee FC
1 : 1
St Johnstone
29 Aug
Hearts
2 : 1
St Johnstone
Page 1 of 6

Kilmarnock

(Away)
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Hibernian
0 : 1
Kilmarnock
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
02 Sept
Kilmarnock
0 : 1
St. Mirren
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 14:4 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 8:4 16
3 Hearts 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
4 Dundee FC 7 3 1 3 9:7 10
5 St. Mirren 7 3 1 3 8:9 10
6 St Johnstone 7 2 2 3 9:10 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 7:8 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 8:11 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 6:15 5
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premiership (Relegation Group)