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St. Liege vs Dender - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

Belgian Cup
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: St. Liege at 1.64 goals for, 1.18 against; Dender at 1.11 for, 1.59 against. Head-to-head, St. Liege have won 1 to Dender's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Dec 20, 2025, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.38) point toward St. Liege. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
St. Liege
15%
Draws
61%
Dender
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dender

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • St. Liege carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Dender are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • St. Liege have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
St. Liege Clean Sheet 17%
Dender Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Liege Dender
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.64 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 20, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs St. Liege
0:1
Dec 2, 2025 Belgian Cup
Dender vs St. Liege
3:2
Aug 2, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Dender
1:1
May 17, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Liege vs Dender
0:0
Apr 13, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs St. Liege
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Liege 10 / 100
Dender 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Liege Dender

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dender Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Liege scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Dender's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: St. Liege stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St. Liege VS Dender
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Liege

(Home)
02 Oct
St. Liege
0 : 2
Lens
18 Sept
Gent
2 : 1
St. Liege
12 Sept
Westerlo
4 : 2
St. Liege
05 Sept
St. Liege
1 : 0
Antwerp
29 Aug
Leuven
1 : 2
St. Liege
Page 1 of 6

Dender

(Away)
26 Sept
Hoogstraten
0 : 6
Dender
20 Sept
Dender
1 : 0
Patro Eisden
11 Sept
Gent U23
0 : 1
Dender
04 Sept
Dender
2 : 0
RFC Seraing
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2
Dender
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Truiden -
TBD -
Diksmuide Oostende 0
Lommel SK 2
Westerlo -
TBD -
SK Roeselare 1
Patro Eisden 2
Crossing Schaerbeek 3
Beerschot VA 5
TBD -
Anderlecht -
Heist 3
Kortrijk 2
TBD -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
TBD -
Knokke 2
RFC Seraing 5
Club Brugge -
TBD -
Houtvenne 0
Sporting Lokeren 5
KV Mechelen -
TBD -
Merelbeke 0
Eupen 1
Union Rochefortoise 3
Lierse SK 2
TBD -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
TBD -
OC Charleroi 1
Habay La Neuve 2
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
Nijlen 3
Boom 1
Oostkamp 0
Virton 3
TBD -
Genk -
Londerzeel 0
Renaissance Mons 4
TBD -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
TBD -
RFC Liege 4
Wellen 1
St. Liege -
TBD -
Hoogstraten 0
Dender 6
Leuven -
TBD -
Diegem 0
Francs Borains 1
Mandel United 1
Hasselt 3
TBD -
Cercle Brugge -
1/16-finals
St. Truiden -
Lommel SK -
Westerlo -
Patro Eisden -
Beerschot VA -
Anderlecht -
Heist -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
RFC Seraing -
Club Brugge -
Sporting Lokeren -
KV Mechelen -
Eupen -
Union Rochefortoise -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
Habay La Neuve -
Royale Union SG -
Nijlen -
Virton -
Genk -
Renaissance Mons -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
RFC Liege -
St. Liege -
Dender -
Leuven -
Francs Borains -
Hasselt -
Cercle Brugge -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -