Sport Picks
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO 
Match Events
23'
23'
Zimmerman W.
28'
28'
Wallem C.
41'
41'
Holse C.
Assist: Matan A.
AI Match Summary
St. Louis City in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. Louis City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
15%
27%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St. Louis City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Toronto FC haven't matched St. Louis City's recent run of results.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on St. Louis City taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 17%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | St. Louis City | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 3 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.19 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.22 | 1.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 MLS
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC
3:1
Jul 8, 2023 MLS
Toronto FC vs St. Louis City
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
St. Louis City Compare
Top Goalscorer Holse C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Totland T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22
Toronto FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Corbeanu T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
St. Louis City 84 / 100
Toronto FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
St. Louis City Toronto FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 8:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
St. Louis City's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Toronto FC let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.
St. Louis City has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Games between these two average 2.50 goals.
Scoring Trends
St. Louis City VS Toronto FC
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
St. Louis City
(Home) 30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3 St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3 St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2 Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2 St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2 Minnesota United
30 Aug
St. Louis City
3 : 3 FC Dallas
23 Aug
St. Louis City
2 : 1 Houston Dynamo
02 Aug
St. Louis City
1 : 1 Real Salt Lake
Page 1 of 3
Toronto FC
(Away) 10 Oct
Toronto FC
2 : 1 CF Montreal
27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
22 Aug
Inter Miami
1 : 2 Toronto FC
31 Jul
New York City
1 : 1 Toronto FC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 61:30 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 52:45 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50:40 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 36:34 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 44:31 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38:35 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 39:39 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 51:54 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 41:46 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36:51 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 42:51 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35:68 | 22 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59:22 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68:50 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51:40 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 45:39 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50:40 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 56:45 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 51:66 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38:52 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 58:65 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42:38 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41:52 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 34:46 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 41:46 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 33:48 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35:56 | 24 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
