Sport Picks

Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Millerntor-Stadion

Match Events

46'

Sub

Thielmann J. In: Maina L.

Out: Thielmann J.

51'

Sub

Ache R. In: Bulter M.

Out: Ache R.

65'

Sub

Ritzka L. In: Saliakas M.

Out: Ritzka L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

St. Pauli host 1. FC Koln in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. 1. FC Koln have shipped 1.88 goals a game lately, while St. Pauli have conceded 2.25 and scored 0.75. Head-to-head, St. Pauli have won 0 to 1. FC Koln's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 17, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.31 - 2.00) back St. Pauli to edge this. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

St. Pauli

Draws

1. FC Koln

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: St. Pauli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

St. Pauli has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to 1. FC Koln.
Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for St. Pauli.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Bundesliga 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 100%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

St. Pauli Clean Sheet 68%

1. FC Koln Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	St. Pauli	1. FC Koln
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	8	5
Draws	8	10
Losses	13	15
Goals Scored	0.75	1.75
Goals Conceded	2.25	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs 1. FC Koln

Possession: 51% - 55% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Dec 6, 2025 Bundesliga

1. FC Koln vs St. Pauli

Possession: 58% - 44% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Feb 8, 2019 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Koln vs St. Pauli

Possession: 47% - 40% Cards: 2 - 4

4:1

Sep 2, 2018 2. Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs 1. FC Koln

Possession: 51% - 53% Cards: 0 - 3

3:5

May 4, 2014 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Koln vs St. Pauli

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Pauli Compare

Top Goalscorer Mets K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

1. FC Koln Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Pauli 95 / 100

1. FC Koln 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

St. Pauli 1. FC Koln

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAU Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Pauli scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

1. FC Koln let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

St. Pauli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

1. FC Koln lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St. Pauli VS 1. FC Koln

0.75 Goals Scored 1.75

2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88

100% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	122:36	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70:34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66:47	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71:49	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65:52	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68:47	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51:57	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61:65	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45:61	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	44:53	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44:58	39
12	B. Monchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42:53	38
13	Hamburger	34	9	11	14	40:54	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	7	11	16	49:63	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37:60	32
16	Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45:69	29
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41:72	26
18	St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29:60	26