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St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Muja A.
Assist: Yamamoto R.
40'
Decoene M.
45' Event
Hata T.
Assist: Muja A.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St. Truiden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
St. Truiden
20%
Draws
20%
KV Mechelen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: St. Truiden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and St. Truiden come out ahead of KV Mechelen on wins alone.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on St. Truiden taking it.
  • Regular Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors St. Truiden here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
St. Truiden Clean Sheet 18%
KV Mechelen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Truiden KV Mechelen
Matches Played 36 29
Wins 18 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.75 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen
3:0
Apr 26, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
1:4
Dec 21, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
1:3
Feb 21, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Truiden Compare

Top Goalscorer Muja A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hata T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

KV Mechelen Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Truiden 67 / 100
KV Mechelen 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Truiden KV Mechelen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Truiden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Truiden's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

KV Mechelen has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Difficult form: KV Mechelen registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St. Truiden VS KV Mechelen
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Truiden

(Home)
20 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 2
Westerlo
12 Sept
SK Beveren
2 : 0
St. Truiden
05 Sept
St. Truiden
4 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
02 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 3
Royale Union SG
30 Aug
Antwerp
1 : 4
St. Truiden
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KV Mechelen

(Away)
19 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 0
KV Mechelen
11 Sept
KV Mechelen
0 : 1
Anderlecht
05 Sept
KV Mechelen
0 : 4
Westerlo
29 Aug
RAAL La Louviere
2 : 2
KV Mechelen
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Brugge 10 8 1 1 32:9 57
2 Royale Union SG 10 6 2 2 16:10 53
3 St. Truiden 10 4 2 4 14:11 43
4 Anderlecht 10 3 2 5 16:23 33
5 Gent 10 0 6 4 4:14 29
6 KV Mechelen 10 1 3 6 9:24 29
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)