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St. Truiden vs Lommel SK - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

Belgian Cup
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Belgian Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: St. Truiden at 1.77 goals for, 1.23 against; Lommel SK at 1.6 for, 1.37 against. Head-to-head, St. Truiden have won 2 to Lommel SK's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Aug 8, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.38, favoring St. Truiden. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
St. Truiden
15%
Draws
46%
Lommel SK
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lommel SK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • St. Truiden's 1.77 goals per match outpaces what Lommel SK have produced (1.6).
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on St. Truiden taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Lommel SK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
St. Truiden Clean Sheet 17%
Lommel SK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Truiden Lommel SK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.77 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
St. Truiden vs Lommel SK
1:1
Aug 17, 2020 Club Friendly
St. Truiden vs Lommel SK
1:1
Jul 17, 2019 Club Friendly
St. Truiden vs Lommel SK
1:2
Jul 14, 2018 Club Friendly
Lommel SK vs St. Truiden
0:1
Mar 16, 2017 Club Friendly
St. Truiden vs Lommel SK
6:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Truiden 39 / 100
Lommel SK 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Truiden Lommel SK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Truiden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Truiden found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Lommel SK let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: St. Truiden remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

St. Truiden VS Lommel SK
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Truiden

(Home)
20 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 2
Westerlo
12 Sept
SK Beveren
2 : 0
St. Truiden
05 Sept
St. Truiden
4 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
02 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 3
Royale Union SG
30 Aug
Antwerp
1 : 4
St. Truiden
Page 1 of 6

Lommel SK

(Away)
09 Oct
SK Beveren
1 : 3
Lommel SK
26 Sept
Diksmuide Oostende
0 : 2
Lommel SK
19 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 0
KV Mechelen
12 Sept
Royale Union SG
5 : 0
Lommel SK
04 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Club Brugge
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Truiden -
TBD -
Diksmuide Oostende 0
Lommel SK 2
Westerlo -
TBD -
SK Roeselare 1
Patro Eisden 2
Crossing Schaerbeek 3
Beerschot VA 5
TBD -
Anderlecht -
Heist 3
Kortrijk 2
TBD -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
TBD -
Knokke 2
RFC Seraing 5
Club Brugge -
TBD -
Houtvenne 0
Sporting Lokeren 5
KV Mechelen -
TBD -
Merelbeke 0
Eupen 1
Union Rochefortoise 3
Lierse SK 2
TBD -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
TBD -
OC Charleroi 1
Habay La Neuve 2
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
Nijlen 3
Boom 1
Oostkamp 0
Virton 3
TBD -
Genk -
Londerzeel 0
Renaissance Mons 4
TBD -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
TBD -
RFC Liege 4
Wellen 1
St. Liege -
TBD -
Hoogstraten 0
Dender 6
Leuven -
TBD -
Diegem 0
Francs Borains 1
Mandel United 1
Hasselt 3
TBD -
Cercle Brugge -
1/16-finals
St. Truiden -
Lommel SK -
Westerlo -
Patro Eisden -
Beerschot VA -
Anderlecht -
Heist -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
RFC Seraing -
Club Brugge -
Sporting Lokeren -
KV Mechelen -
Eupen -
Union Rochefortoise -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
Habay La Neuve -
Royale Union SG -
Nijlen -
Virton -
Genk -
Renaissance Mons -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
RFC Liege -
St. Liege -
Dender -
Leuven -
Francs Borains -
Hasselt -
Cercle Brugge -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -