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Stade Malien vs Bougouba

Mali Mali

Premiere Division
Stade Malien Logo

Stade Malien

1 - 0
FT
Bougouba Logo

Bougouba

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Stade Malien in this Premiere Division matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stade Malien.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Stade Malien
30%
Draws
27%
Bougouba
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stade Malien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Bougouba haven't matched Stade Malien's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Stade Malien a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Stade Malien have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 20.8%
Stade Malien Clean Sheet 68%
Bougouba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Malien Bougouba
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.28 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.56 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Bougouba
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Premiere Division
Bougouba vs Stade Malien
0:1
May 10, 2025 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Bougouba
3:0
Mar 4, 2025 Premiere Division
Bougouba vs Stade Malien
2:3
May 9, 2024 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Bougouba
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Malien 95 / 100
Bougouba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Malien Bougouba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stade Malien Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stade Malien went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Stade Malien's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Bougouba conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Stade Malien VS Bougouba
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stade Malien

(Home)
13 Jun
Diarra
0 : 2
Stade Malien
09 Jun
Stade Malien
2 : 1
Binga
04 Jun
Bakaridjan
0 : 2
Stade Malien
31 May
Stade Malien
2 : 2
USFAS Bamako
24 May
Mali Coura
1 : 1
Stade Malien
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Bougouba

(Away)
13 Jun
Real Bamako
4 : 0
Bougouba
09 Jun
Bougouba
2 : 6
Diarra
05 Jun
Binga
0 : 1
Bougouba
31 May
Bougouba
1 : 1
Bakaridjan
25 May
USFAS Bamako
0 : 2
Bougouba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Djoliba 26 18 5 3 41:12 59
2 Stade Malien 26 14 8 4 28:15 50
3 Real Bamako 26 14 7 5 32:14 49
4 Diarra 26 13 5 8 32:24 44
5 Binga 26 12 7 7 28:15 43
6 USFAS Bamako 26 12 6 8 37:27 42
7 Korofina 26 9 6 11 28:31 33
8 Bougouba 26 8 7 11 21:34 31
9 Derby Academie 26 5 14 7 19:22 29
10 Bakaridjan 26 6 9 11 20:27 27
11 Foot Elite 26 7 6 13 23:38 27
12 Onze Createurs 26 6 8 12 16:24 26
13 Mali Coura 26 4 8 14 20:31 20
14 US Bougouni 26 4 4 18 12:43 16
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