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Stade Malien vs Diarra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mali Mali

Premiere Division
Sun, Nov 8, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stade Malien host Diarra in the Premiere Division. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Stade Malien at 1.19 goals for, 0.61 against; Diarra at 1.16 for, 0.94 against. Head-to-head, Stade Malien have won 3 to Diarra's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 13, 2026, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 0.94, favoring Stade Malien. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Stade Malien
30%
Draws
31%
Diarra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stade Malien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Stade Malien come out ahead of Diarra on wins alone.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Stade Malien taking it.
  • Regular Premiere Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.4%
Stade Malien Clean Sheet 20%
Diarra Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Malien Diarra
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 18 15
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.19 1.16
Goals Conceded 0.61 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 Premiere Division
Diarra vs Stade Malien
0:2
May 16, 2026 Coupe du Mali
Stade Malien vs Diarra
0:1
Mar 29, 2026 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Diarra
2:0
May 15, 2025 Premiere Division
Diarra vs Stade Malien
0:3
Jan 23, 2025 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Diarra
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Malien 40 / 100
Diarra 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Malien Diarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stade Malien Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stade Malien scored in 61% of their last 36 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Stade Malien stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Diarra conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Stade Malien VS Diarra
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stade Malien

(Home)
01 Nov
Real Bamako
0 : 1
Stade Malien
13 Sept
Stade Malien
0 : 1
Colombe
06 Sept
Colombe
0 : 0
Stade Malien
13 Jun
Diarra
0 : 2
Stade Malien
09 Jun
Stade Malien
2 : 1
Binga
Page 1 of 8

Diarra

(Away)
02 Nov
Diarra
0 : 0
Djoliba
25 Oct
ASKO Kara
1 : 0
Diarra
18 Oct
Diarra
3 : 2
ASKO Kara
13 Sept
Nations FC
1 : 1
Diarra
05 Sept
Diarra
1 : 0
Nations FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Binga 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Derby Academie 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Bakaridjan 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
4 Stade Malien 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
5 Djoliba 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
6 Onze Createurs 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
7 Bougouba 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
8 Diarra 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
9 AS Kayes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
10 CS Bamako 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
11 Korofina 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
12 Foot Elite 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
13 Real Bamako 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
14 USFAS Bamako 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)