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Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Londja R.
39'
Philippin R.
56'
Afriyie D.

AI Match Summary

Stade Nyonnais in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stade Nyonnais.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Stade Nyonnais
15%
Draws
42%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stade Nyonnais

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Stade Nyonnais.
  • Win probability leans Aarau's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 93%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 93%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Stade Nyonnais Clean Sheet 10%
Aarau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Nyonnais Aarau
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 19 11
Goals Scored 1 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.4 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
2:1
Aug 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
2:1
May 8, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
5:1
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stade Nyonnais Compare

Top Goalscorer Edougue S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Guindo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Nyonnais 10 / 100
Aarau 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Nyonnais Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:7
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Stade Nyonnais's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aarau lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stade Nyonnais VS Aarau
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Stade Nyonnais

(Home)
06 Nov
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 5
Lausanne Ouchy
30 Oct
Rapperswil-Jona
1 : 4
Stade Nyonnais
23 Oct
Winterthur
4 : 0
Stade Nyonnais
16 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 3
Basel
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
06 Nov
Aarau
0 : 3
Wil
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
24 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
18 Oct
Aarau
2 : 0
Zurich
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 12 8 4 0 23:5 28
2 Winterthur 12 7 3 2 26:11 24
3 Yverdon 12 6 4 2 23:14 22
4 Kriens 12 4 4 4 21:19 16
5 Xamax 12 5 1 6 16:20 16
6 Aarau 12 4 3 5 19:21 15
7 Etoile-Carouge 12 3 4 5 12:17 13
8 Rapperswil-Jona 12 3 2 7 18:25 11
9 Wil 12 2 5 5 18:27 11
10 Stade Nyonnais 12 2 2 8 12:29 8
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)