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Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stade Nyonnais host Aarau in the Challenge League. Aarau go into this one as the clear favorite. Aarau have shipped 1.52 goals a game lately, while Stade Nyonnais have conceded 2 and scored 0.93. Past meetings favor Aarau slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 7, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.88) point toward Aarau. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Stade Nyonnais
35%
Draws
52%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Stade Nyonnais.
  • Win probability leans Aarau's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Stade Nyonnais Clean Sheet 10%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Nyonnais Aarau
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 2 14
Draws 11 9
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 0.93 2
Goals Conceded 2 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
2:1
May 8, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
5:1
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
0:1
Aug 22, 2025 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
4:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Nyonnais 10 / 100
Aarau 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Nyonnais Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Stade Nyonnais's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aarau let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Stade Nyonnais went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stade Nyonnais VS Aarau
1 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stade Nyonnais

(Home)
11 Sept
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 3
Xamax
06 Sept
Yverdon
4 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
01 Sept
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 2
Winterthur
28 Aug
Kriens
3 : 0
Stade Nyonnais
21 Aug
Stade Nyonnais
0 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
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Aarau

(Away)
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
31 Aug
Wil
2 : 2
Aarau
28 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Xamax
23 Aug
Yverdon
2 : 1
Aarau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 8 6 2 0 17:3 20
2 Winterthur 8 4 3 1 17:7 15
3 Yverdon 8 4 3 1 14:9 15
4 Aarau 8 3 3 2 13:14 12
5 Xamax 8 4 0 4 12:14 12
6 Kriens 8 3 2 3 12:10 11
7 Etoile-Carouge 8 2 3 3 7:8 9
8 Rapperswil-Jona 8 2 1 5 12:16 7
9 Wil 8 1 3 4 10:21 6
10 Stade Nyonnais 8 0 2 6 6:18 2
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)