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Stafford vs Morpeth

England England

NPL Premier Division 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Johnson A.
61' Event
Noble L.
72' Event
Fenton J.

AI Match Summary

Morpeth in this NPL Premier Division 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Morpeth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Stafford
20%
Draws
33%
Morpeth
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stafford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Morpeth have won more games recently than Stafford.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Stafford taking it.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Stafford Clean Sheet 20%
Morpeth Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stafford Morpeth
Matches Played 26 31
Wins 8 12
Draws 2 5
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.92 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Stafford
6:0
Nov 11, 2023 NPL Premier Division
Stafford vs Morpeth
0:3
Mar 25, 2023 NPL Premier Division
Stafford vs Morpeth
0:0
Oct 15, 2022 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Stafford
2:1
Jan 8, 2022 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Stafford
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stafford Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Morpeth Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnson A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Noble L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stafford 85 / 100
Morpeth 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stafford Morpeth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stafford Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Morpeth's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Stafford has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Stafford found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (26 games).

Scoring Trends

Stafford VS Morpeth
1.33 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stafford

(Home)
12 Sept
Kidsgrove Athletic
0 : 3
Stafford
05 Sept
Stafford
3 : 0
Northampton on Chenecks
29 Aug
Corby
0 : 2
Stafford
14 Jul
Stafford
0 : 0
Shrewsbury
20 Sept
Sporting Club Inkberrow FC
4 : 3
Stafford
Page 1 of 6

Morpeth

(Away)
12 Sept
Morpeth
0 : 1
Dunston
29 Aug
Morpeth
2 : 0
Witton Albion
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
25 Apr
Morpeth
2 : 0
Warrington Town
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0
Morpeth
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Radcliffe 40 28 3 9 103:58 87
2 Macclesfield 40 24 5 11 84:47 77
3 Marine 40 23 7 10 87:44 76
4 Warrington Rylands 40 21 12 7 65:42 75
5 Worksop 40 21 7 12 72:49 70
6 Hyde 40 19 10 11 68:48 67
7 Ashton United 40 19 10 11 73:63 67
8 Gainsborough 40 19 6 15 66:63 63
9 Lancaster 40 18 8 14 60:62 62
10 Guiseley 40 18 7 15 69:63 61
11 Ilkeston 40 18 6 16 69:62 60
12 Whitby 40 17 8 15 60:50 56
13 Morpeth 40 14 8 18 76:81 50
14 United of Manchester 40 15 4 21 55:77 48
15 Matlock 40 14 5 21 62:77 47
16 Bamber Bridge 40 12 11 17 63:82 47
17 Workington 40 11 11 18 67:81 44
18 Basford Utd. 40 9 10 21 44:65 37
19 Bradford PA 40 7 9 24 50:85 30
20 Stafford 40 9 3 28 36:81 30
21 Atherton Collieries 40 7 4 29 47:96 25
22 Marske United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - National League North 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2023/2024 (Play Offs)