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Stal Jasien vs BKS Sparta Katowice

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group III 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stal Jasien play BKS Sparta Katowice in the III Liga - Group III 2025/2026. BKS Sparta Katowice are favorites here. Recently, Stal Jasien averaged 0.53 goals scored and 3.1 conceded. BKS Sparta Katowice averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. In past meetings, Stal Jasien won 0, BKS Sparta Katowice won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Stal Jasien and 2.19 for BKS Sparta Katowice. This points to a BKS Sparta Katowice double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Stal Jasien
15%
Draws
73%
BKS Sparta Katowice
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: BKS Sparta Katowice

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Stal Jasien picked up more points recently compared to BKS Sparta Katowice.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Stal Jasien Clean Sheet 10%
BKS Sparta Katowice Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stal Jasien BKS Sparta Katowice
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 1 14
Draws 1 5
Losses 28 9
Goals Scored 0.53 1.86
Goals Conceded 3.1 1.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 III Liga - Group III
BKS Sparta Katowice vs Stal Jasien
3:0
Nov 16, 2025 III Liga - Group III
Stal Jasien vs BKS Sparta Katowice
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stal Jasien Compare

Top Goalscorer Kurianowicz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

BKS Sparta Katowice Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazurek M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mazurek P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stal Jasien 13 / 100
BKS Sparta Katowice 69 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stal Jasien BKS Sparta Katowice

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BKS Sparta Katowice Win (2)
Secondary Pick BKS Sparta Katowice & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +200%
25.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Stal Jasien attacking → ← attacking BKS Sparta Katowice

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stal Jasien scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

BKS Sparta Katowice let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Stal Jasien went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

BKS Sparta Katowice lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

4 Points in last 5 47
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zielona Gora342110377:1773
2Polkowice34207764:4267
3BKS Sparta Katowice34188853:3462
4Skra Czestochowa34178968:5659
5Zaglebie II341761177:6157
6Goczalkowice Zdroj341591049:4654
7Kluczbork341571267:4352
8Warta Gorzow341571254:4752
9Gornik Zabrze II341561373:4451
10Sleza Wroclaw341471349:5749
11Woliborz341391248:4948
12Carina Gubin3412111150:5147
13Legnica II341371463:5846
14Karkonosze Jelenia Gora341291357:5645
15Polonia Nysa349101551:5837
16Starowice Dolne34762133:8127
17Pniowek Pawlowice34542528:7719
18Stal Jasien34213121:1057