Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

Division 1 Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stal Mielec host Warta Poznan in the Division 1. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Stal Mielec at 1.86 goals for, 2.07 against; Warta Poznan at 1.71 for, 1.46 against. Past meetings favor Warta Poznan slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 22, 2024, ending 5:2. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.88) point toward Warta Poznan. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Stal Mielec
15%
Draws
76%
Warta Poznan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Warta Poznan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Warta Poznan have won more games recently than Stal Mielec.
  • 76% — that's where the model lands on Warta Poznan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Stal Mielec Clean Sheet 10%
Warta Poznan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stal Mielec Warta Poznan
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.86 1.71
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Warta Poznan vs Stal Mielec
5:2
Oct 23, 2023 Ekstraklasa
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznan
0:1
May 27, 2023 Ekstraklasa
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznan
1:0
Nov 11, 2022 Ekstraklasa
Warta Poznan vs Stal Mielec
1:1
Apr 16, 2022 Ekstraklasa
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznan
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stal Mielec 10 / 100
Warta Poznan 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stal Mielec Warta Poznan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Warta Poznan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stal Mielec's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Warta Poznan let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Stal Mielec remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Stal Mielec VS Warta Poznan
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stal Mielec

(Home)
19 Sept
Lechia Gdansk
7 : 1
Stal Mielec
14 Sept
Stal Mielec
1 : 2
Termalica Bruk-Bet
05 Sept
Stal Mielec
1 : 1
Odra Opole
02 Sept
Leczna
4 : 3
Stal Mielec
29 Aug
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 0
Stal Mielec
Page 1 of 6

Warta Poznan

(Away)
03 Oct
Chrobry Glogow
1 : 3
Warta Poznan
18 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 2
Puszcza
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0
Arka Gdynia
04 Sept
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1 : 0
Warta Poznan
30 Aug
Legnica
2 : 1
Warta Poznan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 15:8 18
2 Termalica Bruk-Bet 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
3 Warta Poznan 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
4 LKS Lodz 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
5 Legnica 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
7 S. Rzeszow 9 4 2 3 10:15 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 17:15 13
9 Chrobry Glogow 9 3 3 3 11:8 12
10 Pogon Siedlce 8 3 3 2 9:7 12
11 Ruch Chorzow 9 3 3 3 9:11 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11:11 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 7:9 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 14:17 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 14:23 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 12:14 8
18 Puszcza 8 2 0 6 8:12 6
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)