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Starogard Gdanski vs Gedania Gdansk

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Starogard Gdanski play Gedania Gdansk in the III Liga - Group II 2023/2024. Gedania Gdansk are favorites here. Recently, Starogard Gdanski averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.9 conceded. Gedania Gdansk averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. In past meetings, Starogard Gdanski won 2, Gedania Gdansk won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 11, 2024 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Starogard Gdanski and 1.31 for Gedania Gdansk. This points to a Gedania Gdansk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Starogard Gdanski
15%
Draws
69%
Gedania Gdansk
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gedania Gdansk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Starogard Gdanski picked up more points recently compared to Gedania Gdansk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Starogard Gdanski Clean Sheet 18%
Gedania Gdansk Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 83%
Second Half Goal 87%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Starogard Gdanski Gedania Gdansk
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 1 13
Draws 6 1
Losses 23 17
Goals Scored 1.03 1.55
Goals Conceded 2.9 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs Gedania Gdansk
1:3
Jan 13, 2024 Club Friendly
Starogard Gdanski vs Gedania Gdansk
0:4
Oct 14, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Gedania Gdansk vs Starogard Gdanski
3:1
May 14, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Gedania Gdansk vs Starogard Gdanski
2:4
Feb 11, 2023 Club Friendly
Starogard Gdanski vs Gedania Gdansk
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Starogard Gdanski Compare

Top Goalscorer Kleinschmidt K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Gedania Gdansk Compare

Top Goalscorer Zukowski P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Waliszewski K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Starogard Gdanski 18 / 100
Gedania Gdansk 64 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Starogard Gdanski Gedania Gdansk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gedania Gdansk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Gedania Gdansk & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +100%
12.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Starogard Gdanski attacking → ← attacking Gedania Gdansk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Starogard Gdanski scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Gedania Gdansk let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Starogard Gdanski went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Gedania Gdansk lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 40
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Swit Szczecin34274375:1785
2Elana Torun34218556:2171
3Unia Swarzedz34196966:4663
4Zawisza341771073:3858
5Blekitni Stargard341741380:6255
6Notec Czarnkow341551473:6350
7Gedania Gdansk341621658:5650
8Polonia Sroda Wielkopol341551455:6150
9Pogon Szczecin II341541563:6049
10Nowe Skalmierzyce341471356:5049
11Kleczew341461459:6548
12Swinoujscie341441645:6046
13Vineta Wolin341361542:6645
14Cartusia Kartuzy341281460:5144
15Luzino341042048:7134
16Stolem Gniewino34891734:5833
17Unia Solec Kujawski34742340:8025
18Starogard Gdanski34272539:9713