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Stjarnan vs Valur Prediction & H2H Stats

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Samsung völlurinn, Gardabaer
Stjarnan Logo

Stjarnan

Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Valur Logo

Valur

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Stjarnan host Valur in the Besta deild karla. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Valur have shipped 2.16 goals a game lately, while Stjarnan have conceded 2.18 and scored 1.85. Head-to-head, Stjarnan have won 2 to Valur's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 3, 2026, ending 2:3. The numbers (2.38 xG vs 1.69) point toward Stjarnan. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Stjarnan
30%
Draws
31%
Valur
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Stjarnan have won more games recently than Valur.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 13%
Valur Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stjarnan Valur
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 14 10
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.85 1.65
Goals Conceded 2.18 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2026 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
2:3
Apr 27, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Valur
2:4
Oct 4, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Stjarnan
1:2
Jul 1, 2025 Icelandic Cup
Valur vs Stjarnan
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stjarnan 30 / 100
Valur 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stjarnan Valur

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stjarnan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stjarnan scored in 91% of their last 33 outings.

Valur let in goals in 90% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Stjarnan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stjarnan VS Valur
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Stjarnan

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 7

Valur

(Away)
20 Sept
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1 : 1
Valur
13 Sept
Valur
4 : 1
Thor Akureyri
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Valur
2 : 2
Akranes
23 Aug
Vikingur Reykjavik
2 : 0
Valur
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valur 24 9 4 11 44:47 31
2 Stjarnan 24 9 4 11 46:55 31
3 Hafnarfjordur 24 6 9 9 35:41 27
4 KA Akureyri 24 6 5 13 38:51 23
5 Thor Akureyri 24 6 3 15 23:57 21
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 4 7 13 33:48 19
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)